Economics and Scrambled Eggs

In chess a fork occurs when a piece moves into a position where it can simultaneously attack two or more opposing pieces.  The knight, which can move in an “L” shaped pattern and four different directions, is the piece most commonly used to execute this type of attack. A fork usually results in the opposing player losing a major piece. High caliber players often take care to avoid moves that could leave an opening for two quality pieces like a Queen and a Bishop to be attacked at the same time.

In his aggression to flood the economy with fiat money and lower key interest rates to zero, Ben Bernanke may have moved his monetary pieces and the economy into a vulnerable position. The Federal Reserve faces two problems. While lower rates did little to boost an economy already flooded in debt, they did help chase money toward the stock market where indices have bounced approximately 60% from the lows made almost a year ago.

A dramatically inflated money supply creates the very real danger of rapid price increases across the economic landscape. At its very worse, inflation can destroy the currency as illustrated historically by the experience of the Weimar Republic. The Producer Price Index, which showed an annualized rise of 16%, sounded an alarm to put the brakes on the monetary printing presses.

The likely result of pulling back on the monetary reins will be much higher interest rates and siphoning money out of the stock market. On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve continues on its present course, then the odds of a currency crisis increase with each passing day.   

It looks like Bernake is sure to lose a piece. He has to be careful not to put the country into “checkmate”.